February 14, 2018

Am I Dreaming?

Current Conditions

Temperature: 42 degrees, feels like 36 degrees
Dew Point: 30 degrees
Winds: SSW 10 mph
Pressure: 1004.1 mb
Visibility: 10 miles

I asked if I was dreaming today because the high temperature was 48 degrees. Just last week we were in the negatives with wind chill! Wisconsin can be an unpredictable place sometimes. The day started out sunny and foggy with a temperature of 27 degrees and winds out of the south at 7 mph. Towards the afternoon the fog cleared and the temperature rose to the upper 30s with winds slightly increasing to S 10 mph. By the evening the temperature had cooled, but it was still 42 degrees outside. Figure 1 shows the temperatures of the lower 48 states. You can see the polar air pushed back into Canada.

Figure 1. Temperatures on February 14, 2018 in the contiguous United States.

The low pressure fronts have been welcome in the northern part of the country but are causing problems in the southeastern part of the states. Flash flood warnings are expected from Arkansas to West Virginia and Pennsylvania by the middle of next week. Rain events as a result of the low pressure fronts are adding precipitation that the hardened ground cannot hold and could potentially cause flash flooding if the snow melts in the Ozark Mountain region. Figure 2 shows where the rain events will likely occur.

Figure 2. Rain events predicted for next week.

As far as my prediction from yesterday, I was correct that temperatures would increase, but I low-balled the estimate because we actually reached the upper forties!

For tomorrow, temperatures will continue to be warm, but will drop into the 30s due to the low pressure air mass moving farther away from Wisconsin. Figure 3 shows the moving low pressure fronts and the high pressure system from the north bearing down on Wisconsin.

Figure 3. Map of high and low pressure systems in the United States.