February 28, 2018

Another Warm Day

Current Conditions

Temperature: 40 °F
Dew Point: 33 °F
Winds: ENE 4 mph
Pressure: 1013.2 mb
Visibility: 9 miles

Today wasn't quite as warm as yesterday so I didn't wear shorts, but it was still warm.  This morning the temperature was 29 °F with sunny skies and winds NNE at 4 mph. By the afternoon the temperature had risen to 41 °F with winds ENE at 4mph. The winds are still from the same direction and the temperature hasn't changed much since then. 

Right now the satellite and radar maps are looking a little crazy. Figure 1 is the surface map from NOAA and the least busy map out of all the ones I found.

Figure 1. NOAA surface map of the United States.

 In the west we have high pressure air masses and in the southeast United States is a series of low pressure air masses that are wreaking havoc in the south. In the map one can see rain, thunderstorms, flooding, and a host of mixtures of these precipitation types. The rain from the low pressure systems is causing flooding in the Ohio River valley and other areas in the Arkansas region. The next map in figure 2 is also a surface map but has radar added in.

Figure 2. Intellicast mixed surface map of the United States.

 Here is where things get crazy. This map shows more of the low pressure systems along the high pressure front. The warm air is coming from the Gulf coast and bringing warm, moist air that's meeting the cold air from the north and creating heavy rain and thunderstorms. In the Wisconsin area the front is creating snow that will possibly fall tomorrow. In figure 3 is an image of winds in the upper atmosphere that shows where the moist air is coming from. 

Figure 3. Wind map of the upper atmosphere.

 The winds are coming off the Pacific and moving over the Gulf and the United States. What's bizarre to me is what looks like the jet stream in the top left corner being cut off by this sudden strong wind current. I'm not quite sure what the explanation is here.
Next in figure 4 is a satellite image of the water vapor which follows the path of the strong air current shown in figure 3. 

Figure 4. Water vapor satellite image.

 Figure 4 shows the water vapor coming from the Pacific and Gulf coast that's causing the heavy rain and thunderstorms in the south. 

 Previous Prediction

My prediction from yesterday was correct; cooler temperatures from the high pressure systems.

 Prediction

For tomorrow, I predict cooler temperatures with cloud cover and possible snow. This is from the low pressure systems to the south of Wisconsin right now. Of course this could change between now and tomorrow depending on how far north the precipitation from the low pressure systems reaches.